Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development

Muller, C. and Waha, K. and Bondeau, A. and Heinke, J. (2014) Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development. Global Change Biology. pp. 1-13.

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Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: We thank Hermann Lotze-Campen and Gerald Nelson for valuable discussions in the early framing of the study’s concept. CM acknowledges financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). KW acknowledges financial support from the CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). JH acknowledges financial support from the CLIMAFRICA project, funded by the European Commissions 7th Framework Program. We acknowledge the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) for supplying climate data.
Uncontrolled Keywords: adaptation; climate change; development; impacts; modeling; sub-Saharan Africa
Author Affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Subjects: Atmosperic Science
Atmosperic Science > Climatology
Divisions: General
Depositing User: Mr Siva Shankar
Date Deposited: 19 May 2014 09:22
Last Modified: 19 May 2014 09:22
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