On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling - a case study for wheat

Meinke, H. and Stone, R.C. (1997) On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling - a case study for wheat. Scientia Agricola, 54. pp. 121-129.

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The El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon strongly influences rainfall distribution around the world. Using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) allows a probabilistic forecast of future rainfall that can be useful to managers of agricultural systems. Using wheat as an example, we show in this study how the SOI phase system, when combined with a cropping systems simulation capability, can be used operationally to Improve tactical crop management and hence increase farm profits and/or decrease production risks. We show the validity of the approach for two contrasting locations, namely Dalby in Northern Australian and Piracicaba in Brazil At Dalby, highest median yields were achieved following a rapidly rising SOI phase in April/May and lowest median yields following a consistently negative phase. Conversely, highest median yields at Piracicaba followed a near zero April/May phase and lowest median yields when the phase was consistently positive. We show how tactical management options can range from crop or cultivar choice to nitrogen management and marketing of the future wheat crop.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: climatic variability, crop and systems modelling, crop production forecasts
Author Affiliation: Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU), DPI/CSIRO and DNR, P.O. Box 102, Toowoomba, Q. 4350, Australia
Subjects: Atmosperic Science > Climatology
Plant Production
Divisions: Other Crops
Depositing User: Mr. SanatKumar Behera
Date Deposited: 10 Mar 2012 09:51
Last Modified: 10 Mar 2012 09:51
Official URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0103-90161997...
URI: http://eprints.icrisat.ac.in/id/eprint/3729

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