Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies

Rosenzweig, C. and Strzepek, K. M. and Major, D. C. and et al, . (2004) Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies. Global Environmental Change, 14 (4). pp. 340-365.

[img] PDF - Published Version
Restricted to ICRISAT researchers only


This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth. For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer. Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: The work reported here was supported in part by a research consortium consisting of Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc., Agrium, Inc., Case Corporation, and Valmont Industries, Inc., with additional support from the University of Colorado. The Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, at Columbia University led the multi-institutional research team.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate; Climate change; Water supply; Water demand; Agriculture; Irrigation; Adaptation
Author Affiliation: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
Subjects: Atmosperic Science > Climatology
Divisions: General
Depositing User: Mr Siva Shankar
Date Deposited: 10 May 2012 09:52
Last Modified: 10 May 2012 09:53
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.09.003
URI: http://eprints.icrisat.ac.in/id/eprint/5224

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item