Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Ye, L. and Xiong, W. and Li, Z, and et al, . (2012) Climate change impact on China food security in 2050. Agronomy for Sustainable Development. 12 p..

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Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3–11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030–2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to −4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: The research was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951504). Partial supports also came from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2010DFB10030) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41001246). The authors thank the Flemish Interuniversity Council (VLIR-UOS NBTP2011-67885) of Belgium for supporting the writing of this paper.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Foodsecurity, Climate change, Cropmodeling, Crop yield, Scenario, Food production, Policy, China
Author Affiliation: MOA Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 12 Zhongguancun South Street, 100081 Beijing, China
Subjects: Atmosperic Science > Climatology
Divisions: General
Depositing User: Mr Siva Shankar
Date Deposited: 16 Jul 2012 08:41
Last Modified: 16 Jul 2012 08:42
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