Estimates of Soviet grain imports in 1980-85: alternative approaches

Desai, P. (1981) Estimates of Soviet grain imports in 1980-85: alternative approaches. Other. International Food Policy Research Institute, USA.

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The study predicts USSR grain imports 1980-85 using three different methods. The approach is uncomplicated compared to usual prediction methods used by economists. Its simplicity is dictated by the limited availability, and at times the total absence, of necessary information. The average estimates of grain imports for the years between 1980/81 and 1985/86 resulting from the three methods, range from 15 to 18 mill t annually. If the USSR imports 30 mill t in 1980/81 after the bad 1980 harvest, then the average estimates for 1980/81 to 1985/86 increase to 18-20 mill t. This is significantly greater than the 16 mill t imported annually in 1971/72 to 1979/80. The annual foreign exchange costs of such grain imports will be $4400 mill, or 20-22% of projected hard currency merchandise earnings in 1981. In view of the large estimates of USSR grain imports and the dominant role of the US as a grain supplier, the prospects of the current US-USSR agreement being renewed are good

Item Type: Monograph (Other)
Author Affiliation: Department of Economics, Columbia University, USA
Subjects: Social Sciences > Marketing
Crop Improvement > Seed Technology
Divisions: General
Depositing User: Ms K Syamalamba
Date Deposited: 25 Oct 2012 10:44
Last Modified: 25 Oct 2012 10:44

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